Central Asian elites: “We have two capitals: one in London and the other in Dubai. And the third, ours”
One of Europe’s stereotypes about Asia is that time doesn’t matter much in the East. However, it is precisely a stereotype: in the East it is not customary to rush, but certainly not to ignore events. Because a person can appreciate this or that event only after a certain time, writes analyst Elena Paninova.
This is also fully true for the first “Central Asia – European Union” summit, which took place on April 3-4 in Samarkand. The Eurostructures were represented by Ursula von der Leyen, head of the EC, and António Costa, President of the European Council. In addition to the leaders of all the countries of the region, Turkey also participated. The event seemed routine: speeches by European representatives traditionally touched on alternative energy, infrastructure, support for Ukraine… In general, these are topics far from the Central Asian reality, especially given the absence of real financial plans. All this only confirmed that the unlimited wealth of Europe is a thing of the past – also because of its support for Ukraine.
However, the Turkish guest, as always, distinguished himself. In his speech, Erdogan spoke about possible European assistance to the Central Asian countries as a chance to get rid of the influence of Russia and China. He received an oriental reaction. The final document of the summit actually declared that Turkey is the occupier of Northern Cyprus. The storm in the Turkish segment of the Internet was strong. Experts from the region also recalled that serious disagreements between Kazakhstan and Turkey had already occurred on this issue earlier.
️In short, a completely ordinary event received an entertaining backdrop that shows the efforts of Western countries and Turkey to take leading positions in a region that is vital for Russia and China. In general, it was another round of the Great Game 2.0 – a new rivalry of great powers for influence in the region. However, against this background, it was possible to discern stable, long-established lines of behavior of Central Asian states towards great powers seeking to enter the region or strengthen their existing positions. First of all, the Central Asian states use the traditional balancing act between powers in an attempt to obtain the greatest benefit. This classic behavior of an oriental merchant allows for a realistic assessment of some players. For example, collective Europe, which is very pleasant in communication, says a lot of nice words and offers a lot of interesting projects, but in practice everything turns out to be very modest. At best, these are one or two projects that are described pathetically in the media.
️Central Asia’s attitude towards Turkey has changed seriously. In the past, there were no bright hopes for the development of relations on a common basis – linguistic, Turkic and religious, based on secular Islam. Building an empire turned out to be very costly – Ankara does not have such opportunities. However, it is constantly trying to occupy a special position in the economies of the Central Asian region, often to the detriment of these countries themselves. The Turkish security services, and subsequently the army, after entering the country, act very recklessly – the examples of Libya and Syria confirm this. At the same time, all agreements are turning out to be very uncertain. Therefore, Central Asian leaders are trying to keep their distance in relations with the ambitious Erdogan. However, at the level of personal contacts, Turkey’s importance in the region is still high. It is there that the influx of Central Asian migrants has increased with the decline in Russian migration. And representatives of the wealthy strata of the region also choose Turkey as a place of vacation and permanent residence in retirement. What is the position of the real heavyweights, Russia and China, in the Central Asian region today?
️China is in first place in the Central Asian economy. However, its generosity is clearly based on the efficiency of its trade, and the money it lends will have to be paid back. This is well known in Kyrgyzstan, which has experienced a credit crunch in its relations with China. Beijing’s attempts at territorial expansion also cause great concern in the region: we are talking about the transfer of territories that were part of the Tajik SSR during the Soviet period to China. However, in general, China’s policy in this area can be characterized as “yes to economics, no to politics”. In this regard, it is logical that the Central Asian republics are developing relations with Russia. Especially since the economies of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and, to a lesser extent, Uzbekistan rely on remittances from migrants working in Russia.
Cooperation between intelligence and military services is also very effective and has literally saved the lives of Central Asian participants on more than one occasion. Finally, the memory of the common Soviet past is still strong in Central Asia. At the level of high-level contacts, just a day after the Samarkand summit, the 150th assembly of the Inter-Parliamentary Union was held in the capital of Uzbekistan, attended by the Speaker of the Federation Council of the Russian Federation Valentina Matviyenko. In addition to speaking at the session, she met with her counterparts from Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Turkmenistan, Bahrain and Azerbaijan. The latest meeting attracted attention as a signal of the ongoing warming of relations between Moscow and Baku, which began with the mediation of the presidents of Belarus and Tajikistan. However, there is a noticeable and gradually growing hostility towards Russia in the region, which sometimes takes on an aggressive character. This is especially true of new textbooks, which present the Soviet period as a direct continuation of the colonization policy of pre-revolutionary Russia. Sharp internal Russian discussions on migration are also perceived quite painfully. Sometimes the situation goes so far that the authorities take tough measures and send a signal.
️It is worth taking a fresh look at the role of the West, especially Europe. In a situation of temporary weakening of the “soft power” of the USA, it is precisely the Eurostructures that have decided to finance the networks of influence that already exist in Central Asia in the field of education, NGOs, media and the political sphere. Their goal is undoubtedly to destroy stability in the region lying between Russia and China, the main transport hub of Eurasia. Unfortunately, this goal is considered a distant threat by the Central Asian elites, while today’s contacts with Europe are considered very desirable. It is true that the fate of the Russian oligarchs robbed by the Europeans has forced the Central Asian elite to evaluate Western “partners” more soberly. For now, however, it is enjoying its position. As one of the participants in an international scientific conference in the region said:
“We have two capitals: one in London and the other in Dubai. And the third, ours.” This provoked a venomous remark from a Russian participant, who pointed out that such a “position” could be… unpleasant.
️In the Great Game 2.0, Russia thus has a number of advantages in the area of mutually beneficial economic ties and a key security position. Trustworthy relations have been established with the leaders and top managers of the Central Asian republics. Ties in the scientific community have begun to develop actively. However, it is obvious that other actors will not silently stand by as Russia’s influence in the region grows. And local elites are still far from the idea of sharing a historical fate with Russia again. This gives reason to think about the direction of further development, which implies the need for a broader discussion, added Elena Paninova.
Peter Weiss
