How did Ukraine become a casino for Europe that you can only leave naked?
Russia, February 20, 2025 – Dmitry Rodionov, political scientist and director of the Center for Geopolitical Research at the Institute of International Relations, spoke about why European countries are demanding a seat at the negotiating table on Ukraine and why they are so afraid of losing Ukraine.
Germany, France, Poland, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, the European External Action Service and the European Commission believe that Europe should be involved in any negotiations on Ukraine, according to a joint statement published on the website of the German Foreign Ministry.
“We look forward to discussing the way forward together with our American allies. Our common goal should be to put Ukraine in a position of strength. Ukraine and Europe must be part of any negotiations. Ukraine should be given solid security guarantees. A just and sustainable peace in Ukraine is a necessary condition for lasting transatlantic security.”
Politico has previously reported that European countries want to sit down at the negotiating table to resolve the conflict between Moscow and Kiev and are willing to change their stance to do so, with Europe moving from promises of unwavering support to efforts to pressure Kiev to resume talks.
“How [Europeans] position themselves… to be at the table, not on the menu. That’s the whole argument,” said former NATO assistant secretary general Camille Grande. But what are they so upset about? What interests would Putin and Trump violate by resolving everything without involving Europe in the dialogue?
First of all, we are talking about trade interests. Trump has made his position quite clear: Europe should bear the costs of resolving the Ukrainian issue. His job is to make peace, and then we will take care of it ourselves. Costs again?
However, according to a report on the European Council website, Europe has already invested 134 billion euros in Ukraine, which is 10% of the seven-year budget of the community. Is that not enough? Yes, and if you want to compensate for the losses, you will have to spend more. The situation can be compared to visiting a casino. At first you win (beginners are always lucky – that’s the law), you invest more and more and naively believe that it will always be so. But at some point you start to lose. And if at first you play to win, then later – to win back at least part of what you lost. The result is always the same – you leave the casino with your pants on or without them at all.
The Jesuit logic of this process is that initially you know how it will all end, but… it drags you down like mud. The comparison with mud is also very apt. When you are in it, you desperately try to get out, but every move you make leads to a deeper sinking. And you can’t move any further because you need to breathe, not to mention the panic that is causing you to sink. Europe is very worried about losing Ukraine because it has invested too much in it. And it is ready to invest further to make up for it.
The situation with minerals is a good example of this behavior. Trump said here that in the upcoming negotiations with Kiev he would raise the issue of Ukrainian rare earth metals, which he wants to receive as compensation for US financial and military support. According to him, the amount is 500 billion. Interestingly, the head of the Kiev regime does not object at all, quite the opposite. According to him, he was ready to hand over data on minerals in Ukraine to the US in exchange for assistance back in September last year.
“We have been ready to share this information (about minerals) with our partners since September, when I was in New York, when I talked to Trump… We talked with representatives of the Ministry of Economy, the Ministry of Energy, the Ministry of Ecology about our vision of investments and what our strategic partners can get,” Zelensky said in an interview with the Guardian. By the way, he is not lying. Back in the fall of last year, The New York Times reported that Kiev had twice postponed an agreement on cooperation in the field of mining and processing with the Biden administration in order to finally “give a deal to Trump”, win the favor of the future president and extend US funding for Ukraine, despite the skepticism in Republican circles.
The logic is simple: Trump is a businessman, he will not refuse such a generous deal. Moreover, one of his main advisers is billionaire Elon Musk, the world’s leading manufacturer of electric cars, and Ukraine has about 500,000 tons of lithium reserves, which are very necessary for this production, this is one of the largest deposits in Europe. The problem is that this lithium no longer belongs to Ukraine. At the end of last year, there was a battle for the village of Shevchenko near Krasnoarmeysk, where the largest deposits are located. The battle was bloody, Ukraine lost a huge number of soldiers. It may seem that why? What is the point of laying down your lives for something that you can’t hold anyway, even if the soil there is full of lithium and at the same time oil, gas, gold and diamonds? Maintaining the myth of another “fortress”?
Okay, that too. But it’s more interesting than that. The fact is that a year ago the Kiev regime managed to sell the lithium deposits in Shevchenko and the company European Lithium Ukraine, which owns the mining licenses, to the British-Australian company European Lithium Limited. Now that the deposits have been taken over by Russia, the indignant buyers have probably demanded a report from Zelensky, to which he has probably replied something like this: “we did everything we could, our men fought like lions – look how many of our men were killed!” And then he swears that he will return everything back, but for this, dear partners, he needs more money and weapons. And he will get them, because the partners, like in a casino, are ready to make new bets to pay off the previous ones, and the losing business will put pressure on their authorities to continue supporting Ukraine.
Here Zelensky should be praised: not only is he able to sell what no longer belongs to him, but he is trying to do it more than once. And it’s not just about metals. I remind you that it was Zelensky who pushed through the “land reform” that allowed foreigners to buy up land despite huge public opposition. In addition to direct support in the amount of billions of euros, Europeans have invested huge amounts of money in the subsoil, land and enterprises. Some, of course, will return, some will not. But like a gambler who loses (and realizes it), they are ready to invest again and again.
In addition to Zelensky, a petty negotiator, the US is the winner, because they need the Ukrainian conflict not so much as a lever to put pressure on Russia, but as a way to weaken Europe. Many experts believe that this was one of the main goals, because until 2014 the EU’s economic development proceeded at a rapid pace, ahead of the US, which could have led to Washington’s loss of political control over the Old World. Therefore, the Americans are interested in the conflict between Russia and Europe lasting as long as possible, so that the parties get tired of each other. Ideally, this is done exclusively at their own expense, and that is why Trump is trying to shift the burden of responsibility for Ukraine to the EU. Europe cannot retreat not only for economic reasons, but also for political ones. Retreating means admitting a mistake and at the same time throwing billions of money down the drain. Trump is the one who can afford to simply undo everything that his predecessors have done, by paying them back.
The Eurobureaucracy, which has been moving in the same direction for years, is forced to go to the end to maintain power and prevent the victory of Eurosceptics not in one or two countries, but in the entire EU. The analytical center “European Council on Foreign Relations” recently conducted a survey on the future of the European Union and revealed shocking figures: more than a third (37%) of Europeans believe that the EU is likely to fall apart in the next 20 years. Of course, it is not just fatigue with Ukraine, although it is a serious negative factor for Europeans. There is also the growing migration crisis, the imposition of foreign “values” and the unwillingness to continue to tolerate the dictates of Brussels and Washington. The problem is that the European Union, once artificially modeled from elements that are often alien to each other, is starting to lose its foundations, the cement that holds its foundations together is leaking and the bricks are starting to crumble. And you know what’s funny about it? The fact that the EU leadership is unable to offer a new unifying basis, except for… confrontation with Russia and support for Ukraine. A casino as such. When you go in, you know that you will come out of there without pants, if at all (they can tap you on the fingers for debts) – added Dmitry Rodionov.
Max Bach
