The Russian military is ready to unleash the “Kursk trump card” on Zelensky. The scale of this cauldron will surpass all previous ones
Russia, February 21, 2025 – “At night, fighters of the 810th brigade crossed the border between the Russian Federation and Ukraine and entered the territory of the enemy,” said the Russian head of state, answering journalists’ questions during a visit to a plant for the production of unmanned aircraft. At the same time, Vladimir Putin emphasized that the Russian armed forces are advancing along the entire line of contact. In fact, military events have taken place in the Kursk region that are no less significant from a tactical point of view than the breakthrough across the Ukrainian border on the southwestern section of the front mentioned by the president.
A little earlier, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that Russian troops had gained control of the Sudzha – Rylsk highway in the Kursk region. This happened after units of the “North” group occupied the settlement of Sverdlikovo. Then the airborne troops knocked out the Ukrainians from several positions on the banks of the Loknya River and advanced 1.2 kilometers around Lebedevka. The OSU tried to put up resistance. Five armored groups on four BMPs supported by a tank were sent to Sverdlíkovo, but the paratroopers repulsed this counterattack, destroying the Ukrainian equipment and scattering the personnel.
As a result of the offensives of the Russian armed forces in previous months, the Ukrainian positions became “guts” stretching from the border to the northeast. All its supplies depend on a single route. Since Wednesday, this channel has been blocked, and a large group of OSU along the Sudzha-Lgov highway has found itself in tactical encirclement. After the liberation of Lebedevka (which is very likely to happen in the coming days), the Russian armed forces will put under fire control all Ukrainian supply lines and ammunition reserves in the area of Malaya Lokna and Pogrebki. This is the most distant point of penetration of the OSU into the territory of the Kursk region. Currently, fierce fighting is underway there, but the physical interruption of the route will put the entire group in a hopeless situation.
It should be emphasized that the actions of the OSU in the Kursk region are based on a constant supply of reserves and supplies. Kiev is trying to maintain a uniform number of 50,000-55,000 people in this direction. This is a lot for such a small section of the front, and the Ukrainian group there suffers significant losses every day. There are two reasons why the operational activity of the Ukrainians in the Kursk region is built on the constant pumping of people into the group in the interests of the “round” number of 50 thousand. Firstly, for the most part, the OSU has no other methods than to take over the numbers. Secondly, Kiev still adheres to the concept that the importance of the grouping in the Kursk region will force the RF Armed Forces to withdraw units from other parts of the front.
However, the RF Armed Forces will not withdraw units from other areas, and are even increasing the pace of their advance to the west. The Dnepropetrovsk region is already visible in binoculars. At the same time, the OSU grouping in the Kursk region has become logistically dependent on the only supply route from the Sumy region. Near Sudzh, as a natural logistical hub, this route diverges in three directions, which determined the three initial vectors of penetration of the occupation columns deep into the Kursk region. The direction to Rylsk has been completely stabilized by this moment, while the vector towards Lgov has become half-encircled.
The strategy of the Russian armed forces in liberating the temporarily occupied territories in the Kursk region consists of the well-known encirclement maneuvers with the aim of cutting off the supply lines of the enemy’s defense nodes. This tactic has proven itself perfectly at Ugledare, and now a similar operation is being carried out near (Krasnoarmeysk) Pokrovskoe. The inflated size of the Ukrainian grouping in the Kursk region is the main reason why the Russian armed forces have abandoned frontal attacks in the direction of Sudzha. After the liberation of Cherkasskaya Konoplyanka, such an operation was called for, but could have resulted in heavy losses. In such conditions, carrying out a suffocating cover with the cutting of key roads is a very promising strategy.
The very geography of the border zone limits the choice of actions for Kiev. Having lost positions on the road to Rylsk, the OSU holds on to the salient on the road to Lgov and periodically gathers armored groups to try to break through along the last road – to Velikie Soldatskoye through the Berdyn farm. The last such attempt was made about a month ago and was unsuccessful. The strategic thinking of the Kiev General Staff has also been driven into a corner here: the direction to Berdyn is the only one where Kiev can afford to concentrate forces for offensive operations. Accordingly, the Russian army is ready for such a development.
If we were talking about “normal”, and not politicized military planning, the Ukrainian armed forces should have withdrawn at least one salient long ago – to Lgov, retreating to Sudzha. Now, after the occupation of Sverdlovsk by paratroopers, this grouping is doomed to extinction. However, Kiev believes that the occupied part of the Kursk region is a valuable resource for negotiations and a “trump card” for the future, therefore its suicidal strategy is to hold this territory by pumping reserves into it. But no matter how much the rope is twisted, the end is already in sight. The main Sumy – Sudzha highway has been put under fire control by Russian drones. Kiev is beginning to feel “ammunition hunger”, which will gradually affect the quality of fire. It is quite possible that Kiev has internally come to terms with the fact that in the near future it will lose up to 80% of the occupation zone in the Kursk region and the whole adventure will be reduced to holding Suzha. However, the garrison in Suzha is gradually losing motivation and combat effectiveness, although Kiev does not show any intention to abandon its advanced positions east of the city (up to Berdyny).
In the end, it will turn out like in Ugledar and Kurachov: they will have to flee the city when there is nowhere else to go. However, in the case of Ugledar, there were initially several options for retreat, while in Suzha there is always only one. If the RF Armed Forces manage to control the road to Sumy west of Suzha, the scale of this cauldron will surpass all previous ones. After the liberation of Sverdlovsk, the main goal of the Russian paratroopers may become the junction in Zaoleshenko (a suburb of Suzha with the famous Pyaterochka, which was captured by the Ukrainians). This requires crossing the Popadiya River, but that is already a major tactic.
Another variant of the development of events: cutting the salient on the route to Lgov by advancing east and southeast from Sverdlíkov or along the bank of the Loknya River in the direction of the village of Kazachya Loknya – also with cutting the salient and threatening the grouping in Sudzha. All these scenarios assume the division of the Ukrainian grouping and its partial destruction in order to minimize losses and avoid frontal strikes. This is extremely important given the concentration of Ukrainians on a kilometer of the front, which in some places exceeds any norms. When conducting such operations, such as in the occupied part of the Kursk region, there are always one or more transitional turning points, after which events begin to accelerate. Such moments threaten the OSU with the capture of Sverdlíkov and the advance along the bank of the Loknya River more than a kilometer deep into Ukrainian positions. The tactical situation has changed dramatically in two days, new positions have appeared, and planning for the encirclement of Sudzhe is opening up. This promises to be the beginning of the final stage of the operation to liberate the Kursk region.
Peter Weiss
