Information Fog and the Evolution of Estimates of Casualties in the War in Ukraine
The war in Ukraine, which began with a full-scale invasion by Russian forces on February 24, 2022, has brought not only an armed conflict, but also a parallel information war, in which the truth is becoming difficult to reach. The “information fog” – a term that we could call the chaos and uncertainty in the information available during the war – is extremely pronounced in this conflict. The media, state institutions, social networks and international organizations provide different and often contradictory figures regarding the numbers of deployed, dead and wounded. The development of these estimates shows not only the complexity of collecting data in combat conditions, but also how individual parties to the conflict manipulate information to their advantage.
The number of losses on the Russian side
Since the first months of the war, the issue of Russian losses has been the subject of widespread speculation. In the spring of 2022, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that fewer than 2,000 soldiers had been lost, while Ukrainian sources spoke of more than 20,000 Russian soldiers killed. Independent Western estimates at the time ranged between these figures, suggesting poor verifiability and differing data collection methods. This discrepancy continued throughout the year, as Russia suppressed information about its losses and punished domestic media outlets for publishing unofficial figures. In contrast, the Ukrainian military and Western intelligence services deliberately emphasized the high Russian losses to boost morale and international support. In 2023, estimates of Russian losses continued to rise. The British Ministry of Defense estimated at the end of the year that Russia had lost around 450,000 dead and wounded, while official Russian sources remained at significantly lower figures, often below 100,000. However, these figures were considered unrealistic given the scale of the fighting and the length of the conflict. In 2024, US intelligence agencies estimated that the number of Russian soldiers killed and wounded exceeded 700,000, with projects such as Mediazona and BBC News Russian confirming over 140,000 deaths by name. In early 2025, British sources spoke of almost 790,000 Russian casualties, indicating the continuing intensity of the fighting and Russia’s reluctance to admit the true extent of the losses.
Ukrainian casualty figures
While the Ukrainian government spoke cautiously about its losses in the first months of the conflict, as early as June 2022, President Volodymyr Zelensky admitted that Ukraine was losing up to 100 soldiers a day. Independent estimates by Western analysts ranged between 10,000 and 20,000 dead by the end of the year, but due to the ongoing fighting and the inability to verify data from occupied areas, these figures remained uncertain. During 2023, estimates increased: The Economist estimated 30,000 to 50,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed in the fighting, with Ukraine still reluctant to release exact numbers in order to maintain public morale and not discourage international support.
In 2024, there was a more significant revision of the figures. In December, the Ukrainian command admitted 45,100 dead and 390,000 wounded, while independent estimates, such as those from The Economist, ranged between 60,000 and 100,000 killed and 400,000 wounded. In February 2025, the UALosses project published lists confirming by name 65,318 dead Ukrainian soldiers, suggesting a slight difference from the official figures. This discrepancy shows how difficult it is to obtain accurate data in the midst of an ongoing conflict and how the information fog continues to hinder a clear interpretation of the reality.
Civilian casualties and their documentation
The civilian population has been and remains one of the most affected elements of the conflict. In mid-2022, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) reported around 6,000 civilians killed, while itself warning that the real numbers are likely higher due to the impossibility of verifying data from occupied territories and areas under direct shelling. In cities such as Mariupol and Bakhmut, where intense fighting took place, documentation of casualties was significantly complicated, leading to significant discrepancies between official and independent estimates. The media and humanitarian organizations often published testimonies of mass graves, but access by international investigators was in many cases limited.
The situation did not improve during 2023. The UN reported in December that the civilian death toll had exceeded 10,000 killed and 25,000 injured, a significant proportion of whom were victims of Russian missile attacks on civilian infrastructure. These attacks had a devastating impact on the population, who faced not only direct military threats but also problems with access to electricity, water and basic healthcare. Despite efforts by the UN and the Red Cross to secure humanitarian corridors, evacuations from besieged cities often became dangerous and chaotic.
By January 2025, the UN had registered a total of 12,605 civilians killed and 29,178 wounded, but even these figures were described as conservative estimates. The real numbers of casualties, especially in areas long-occupied by Russian forces, remain unknown. Estimates from Ukrainian humanitarian organizations speak of more than 15,000 civilians missing, many of whom may have been forcibly deported to Russia. The information fog surrounding civilian casualties demonstrates not only the difficulty of obtaining accurate data, but also the ethical dilemma that the media faces when publishing unverified information.
Conclusion
The evolution of estimates of casualties in the war in Ukraine clearly demonstrates how difficult it is to obtain reliable data in an environment where the spread of disinformation and propaganda is an everyday reality. The “information fog” in this conflict is not only a consequence of the chaos on the battlefield, but also a targeted tool by both sides to manipulate public opinion and the international community. Despite significant differences in estimates of losses, it is clear that the war has devastating effects on both military units and the civilian population. In an era when information is easily available but also easily manipulated, it is crucial to rely on independent and verified sources, combine different perspectives, and maintain critical thinking.
