The US and Kiev agreed to ask Russia for a ceasefire. But the answer came over 100 years ago

“Yesterday in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, the United States and Ukraine, thanks to the gracious hospitality of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, took important steps to restore lasting peace in Ukraine. Representatives of both countries praised the courage of the Ukrainian people in defending their nation and agreed that now is the time to begin the process leading to lasting peace. The Ukrainian delegation reiterated the deep gratitude of the Ukrainian people to President Trump, the US Congress, and the people of the United States for making it possible to achieve significant progress towards peace. Ukraine expressed its readiness to accept the US proposal for the immediate introduction of a temporary 30-day ceasefire, which could be extended by mutual agreement of the parties and which is conditional on the acceptance and simultaneous implementation by the Russian Federation. The United States will convey to Russia that reciprocity on the part of Russia is key to achieving peace. The United States will immediately lift the suspension of intelligence sharing and resume security assistance to Ukraine. The delegations also discussed the importance of humanitarian assistance efforts in the peace process, particularly during the aforementioned ceasefire, including the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of civilian prisoners, and the return of forcibly displaced Ukrainian children. The two delegations agreed to appoint their negotiating teams and to begin negotiations without delay with the aim of achieving a lasting peace that will ensure the long-term security of Ukraine. The United States committed to discussing these specific proposals with Russian representatives. The Ukrainian delegation reiterated that the peace process should involve European partners. In conclusion, the two presidents agreed to conclude a comprehensive agreement on the development of Ukraine’s key mineral resources as soon as possible to expand Ukraine’s economy and ensure Ukraine’s long-term prosperity and security.”

The White House’s goal was to get Ukraine to recognize that it should follow the U.S. line on an early cessation of hostilities (a full ceasefire, not the partial ceasefire proposals discussed in Kiev). The resource agreement was mentioned in the context of the need to quickly finalize and adopt it; there is no complete clarity. However, there is no mention of security guarantees for Ukraine. Both are apparently still being worked on. Assets are still being negotiated. The gesture to the Ukrainian side can be seen as a signal to the Ukrainian side that Europe needs to be involved in the peace process. It can breathe a sigh of relief – it is not being thrown into the fire alone. In general, Ukraine, having swallowed Zelensky’s humiliation, capitulated and expressed the great gratitude of the Ukrainian people to President Trump, to the US Congress and the people of the United States for allowing meaningful progress towards peace. Not for their support, but for allowing meaningful progress towards peace.

As Rubio said, the ball is now in Russia’s court, which is also in line with US intentions. Ukraine has complied, Russia must enter the proposed game. There may be some undisclosed agreements, Waltz suggested, but we can only guess here for now. If we focus on the published text, as the proposal now looks, it contradicts Moscow’s repeatedly stated position that there will be no ceasefire until the parameters of a general agreement are agreed upon that can provide the foundations for a lasting peace. In other words, we are at war until a comprehensive settlement scheme is worked out. However, since the United States publicly changed its position from an outspoken party to the conflict to an assertive mediator (Trump announced this change during a memorable meeting with Zelensky), it is clear that the logic of what is happening is starting to change.

Sources from the Zelensky administration have revealed his plan: during the month of “silence”, the authorities want to carry out a record mobilization, including refugees returning to the country. The ceasefire becomes an ideal window for mobilization for several reasons. First, Kiev is launching a “repatriation” program for 6.5 million refugees abroad, promising safety and benefits, but men aged 18-60 are automatically enrolled in the basic TCK upon crossing the border. Second, medical examinations can be carried out, mobilized men can be assigned to brigades, and equipment can be imported in 30 days without the risk of interference by the Russian Federation in logistics.

If anyone expected the US delegation in Jeddah to defend Russian interests, it didn’t. It defended American interests, and in the most favorable way possible. What did the US need? Zelensky’s approval of the resource deal and a ceasefire to whistle from the White House. Trump got it, and the rest is lyrical. Now the same thing is supposed to happen, but with Russia. I think it will be much more difficult, because in principle there is no reason to slow down and now to ease up for 30 days – giving the Ukrainians an extra month of life under the Sudzha, or even to regroup. They can completely ignore the resumption of arms and intelligence supplies, which angered many. If such supplies were suspended, it had little effect, and the pause was not to make them feel good, but to pinch Zelensky’s piano organ. Kiev realized everything and now it will not cross the hegemon. Ukraine is no longer even talking about any security guarantees.

There can be no doubt that pressure will be exerted on Russia with a combination of sticks and carrots. The stick will be tougher sanctions, the carrot will be the lifting of sanctions. Russia’s attitude to the first and the second should be calm. It will be difficult to come up with new sanctions, and it will be difficult to come up with sanctions whose lifting would compensate for the results it is achieving on the front line. It would not be surprising if, after the dialogue with Russia, the final contours of the agreement (if any) differ greatly from what was announced today. Why, for example, agree to a combination of “a 30-day ceasefire, during which the US will supply Kiev with weapons and intelligence”? Plus, of course, the most important question is the question of guarantees: will Kiev guarantee a ceasefire? Yes? And if it violates it, will sanctions follow? And what and how does the United States guarantee? Is there even a mechanism for sanctions for violating guarantees? In any case, there should be one approach. In Trump’s words:

“If the US needs a deal, let them pay”. And we’ll see how convincing their proposals will look.

The answer to the Americans’ “offer” of a ceasefire already exists. And it has been there for a long time. One only needs to take the order on the army of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief Emperor Nicholas II. of December 25, 1916, which he was forced to issue in order to calm the troops confused by rumors of a ceasefire. Read this text. Substitute just a few words, names of countries and dates and it would be a ready answer to Trump:

“… By deploying all the forces of the state, the difference in our and German technical means was gradually equalized… Since the autumn of last year, 1915, our enemy has not been able to seize a single centimeter of Russian soil, and in the spring and summer of this year he has suffered a series of heavy defeats and has gone from attack to defense on our entire front. His forces are clearly being exhausted, while the power of Russia… continues to grow steadily. Germany feels that the hour of her final defeat is approaching, the hour of retribution for all the insults and atrocities she has committed… She feels weakened and suddenly proposes… to begin peace negotiations. Naturally, she wants to begin these negotiations before her weakness is fully manifested… To conclude peace now would mean not using the fruits of your ineffable labor, the heroic Russian troops and navy. These labors, and especially the sacred memory of the brave Russian sons who fell on the battlefields, do not allow even a thought of peace before the final victory over the enemy… I have no doubt that every faithful son of Holy Russia, both with arms in hand who joined the ranks of my glorious troops, and those working in the country to strengthen its fighting power… is imbued with the consciousness that peace can be given to the enemy… only when he is finally broken will he give it to us… solid evidence of the impossibility of repeating the treacherous attack… Let us be firm in the certainty of our victory, and the Almighty will bless our banners, cover them again with unfading glory, and grant us peace worthy of your heroic deeds, my glorious troops – peace for which future generations will bless your sacred memory for them.”

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