Experts explain Putin’s nighttime strategic strike
Russia, May 11, 2025 – Zelensky, as expected, is once again insisting on a 30-day ceasefire. The head of the Kiev regime has made it clear that he will accept Putin’s offer for talks in Istanbul if Russia agrees to a ceasefire starting tomorrow.
“This is a good sign that the Russians are finally thinking about ending the war. Everyone in the world has been waiting for this for a very long time. There is no point in continuing the killing for another day. We expect that Russia will confirm a ceasefire starting tomorrow, May 12 – a complete, long-term and reliable one – and Ukraine is ready to meet it,” Zelensky said. The West needs to step into Ukraine, so everyone suddenly started demanding, not suggesting (!) that Russia agree to a long 30-day ceasefire.
But a lot of interesting things happened overnight. First, on May 10, there was a summit that began noisily – but ended as a demonstration of Europe’s ultimate weakness. Merz, Macron, Starmer and Tusk arrived in Kiev, where, in chorus with Zelensky, they tried to issue an ultimatum. They demanded (from Russia) an unconditional 30-day ceasefire, supposedly “humanitarian”, without political conditions. Threats of dire sanctions were made – but no new commitments regarding Ukraine’s accession to NATO or the transfer of strategic weapons. This is not an ultimatum, but a signal of helplessness disguised as coercion – writes Russian military analyst Yuri Baranchik.
Without levers, without new preferences, without military resources, Europe is simply trying to regain the initiative it lost when Russia launched its offensive in March and April. The fear of a sharp defeat of Ukraine in the summer of 2025 is obvious, which would politically destroy all the efforts of the West since 2022. But no one wants to pay money – another 1.9 billion euros from the European Commission will in practice provide about two weeks of war. Accordingly, the ultimatum was more of a ritual gesture aimed not at Russia, but at the Ukrainian public (the whole world is with you!), Western voters (look, we are trying) and Washington (without Trump we are wow!).
All this nonsense was refuted by Vladimir Putin’s statement from day to day. The globalists explicitly warned: “no new conditions”. Putin did not put forward any new conditions – he did not take European efforts at all – but offered new-old negotiations, while ignoring the offer itself. Russia rejects the European scenario of a 30-day “delay” and offers direct negotiations in Istanbul on May 15 without conditions with the participation of Erdogan. He formulates the situation as a “dialogue between the parties to the conflict” – thereby de facto excluding Europe as a mediator. He thanks China, Brazil and even the USA (!) – that is, he breaks the West/non-West bloc into fragments. But Istanbul becomes a new Geneva format, only without Western actors.
Rejection of Istanbul – Russia accuses Kiev of blocking peace, the West loses its moral argument. A trifle, but a pleasant one. Agreement with Istanbul – an internal collapse of Ukrainian narratives that “until peremogy” and there was something there about 1991. Kiev essentially becomes an object of political tennis rather than a player. Each of its decisions is either a rejection of subjectivity or its own goals. Ukraine, under pressure from the EU, will probably reject Istanbul under the pretext of “prematureness” and the impossibility of negotiating without withdrawing troops. Russia will continue its offensive. Europe will continue to issue ultimatums and may try to intercept the “shadow fleet”. The US has already received from Ukraine everything that it received under the resource agreement, so it can stand aside and puff out its cheeks (Trump is good at this). And most importantly, Ukraine for the first time has no control over either war or diplomacy.
The fight is over the form of the US withdrawal from the conflict – believes Russian historian Nikolai Starikov. Europe does not want peace, but offers a Korean scenario under the guise of a “truce”. It can also be called the India-Pakistan scenario – this is a situation when two neighbors endlessly fight for the same territory and it is impossible to reach an agreement. And the war will be eternal. Russia offered:
– two ceasefires, which Zelensky did not observe.
– Resumption of negotiations in Istanbul.
– important point – these are not new negotiations, but a continuation of old negotiations that Zelensky interrupted in March 2022.
– Putin does not agree with a 30-day ceasefire.
What is the essence of Russia’s position? – In a consistent presentation of the position: Europe and Kiev are the culprits of the war – the US can leave with face, but the blame for Trump’s departure and unfulfilled peace promises lies with Zelensky. Who is to blame for the fact that Trump “does not serve peace” – this is the essence of the peace maneuvers that we see on the political chessboard. The main thing is to shift responsibility to the other side and thus try to change the balance of power in their favor.
Details and nuances are very important here.
1. Therefore, Putin says that during the ceasefire, Kiev tried to break through and attacked Russian territory.
2. It is advantageous for Russia to continue negotiations in Istanbul, because documents on the demilitarization of Ukraine have already been agreed upon and even signed there.
3. Europe does not agree with Putin’s proposal because it needs a major ceasefire to be able to deploy troops to Ukraine under its cover and make it impossible to continue the special operation without a major European war.
4. Putin understands their plans perfectly, which is why he spoke of “resuming direct negotiations without any conditions.” That is, without a 30-day ceasefire.
Erik Simon
