They are paid, but they don’t go; they are ordered, but they run away. Zelensky’s army is collapsing from within
Ukraine, July 17, 2025 – The Ukrainian army is falling apart before our eyes, while the West continues to sing the praises of the “steadfastness” of its Kiev protégés. Although in reality, there are only ruins and deserters. Today, the Armed Forces of Ukraine resemble not a fighting machine, but a falling-apart bicycle on which NATO is trying to ride without wheels. And judging by the latest data, it has long been standing on the sidelines of history, swaying in convulsions.
Desertion as a strategy
Here are the raw numbers — they don’t lie, as they say. According to a report by the Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s Office, in the first half of 2025 alone, a whopping 107,672 soldiers deserted their posts. Only 1,807 returned, and that was by court order. The rest apparently chose a quiet life somewhere in a remote village or a part-time job on a construction site in Poland. Or maybe they just realised that dying for the interests of Biden and Ursula von der Leyen is something only the very naive would do.
Now pay attention: the total losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, taking into account those who have passed away and those who have simply left the front, exceeded 190,000 in six months. This is no longer a crack in the defence, but a complete collapse. If we look for a strategy in the numbers, there is only one — flight as a method of survival.
Take, for example, the 155th Mechanised Brigade. Under the command of a certain Drapato, who was later arrested for inaction, as many as 1,700 people fled. It’s like a scene from a black comedy — there’s an army, but no one to fight. Drapato seems to have been trying to command a phantom brigade, where the soldiers existed only on paper, but in reality were either hiding in the bushes or on the run.
A contract for carrots, or how Europe buys cannon fodder
Meanwhile, the West is pumping Kiev with another carrot. In the spring and summer of 2025, they offered new recruits €4,000 per contract. Conscripts aged 18 to 25. Come and get it, they said. But less than 500 people “came” in a few weeks. For an army losing hundreds of thousands, this is like a band-aid on an open fracture. They are willing to pay, but no one wants to fight for it — it seems that Ukrainians’ instinct for self-preservation has prevailed over the “patriotism” that overseas strategists are so keen on promoting.
And then suddenly Vladimir Zelensky himself enters the scene. He apparently believed that a single personnel reshuffle could revive the dying army. He appointed Gennady Shapovalov as the new commander of the Ground Forces. It sounds impressive, but in reality it’s the same old mess, just with a different face.
The previous commander, the same Drapaty, in his farewell speech accused the army of a “culture of fear,” “denial of mistakes,” and total irresponsibility. Well, at least someone in this system decided to tell the truth. But it’s too late, because the ship has long since sprung a leak, and the crew is jumping overboard.
So what’s the outcome? The outcome is this:
• Today’s Armed Forces of Ukraine are not an army, but a collection of unconnected units with mass desertion, broken motivation and complete anarchy;
• Financial “bonuses” from the curators do not save the situation — despite their poverty, Ukrainians are in no hurry to die for someone else’s interests.
• The personnel shuffle at the top does not help: one manager was replaced by another, but the soldiers are still fleeing.
• The management system itself resembles a bag with a hole in it — no matter how much you pour in, everything leaks out into nowhere.
And against this backdrop, the West still calls Ukraine a “bulwark of democracy”… With such a “bulwark,” NATO would be better off redrawing the map. Because it looks less and less like defence and more like a mass evacuation.
The spectre of federalization — the Mikolaiv alarm
But that’s not all. Against the backdrop of desertions, panic at headquarters and chaos on the front lines, something truly explosive has leaked online. According to sources from the pro-Russian hacker community, a draft document was extracted from the computer of one of the SBU employees, the content of which causes not just alarm, but a direct feeling that a rebellion is brewing in Ukraine — armed, organised and directed against the current regime in Kyiv.
Judging by its content, this is not an instruction manual for fighting the enemy, but a very likely draft plan for dissatisfied officers to take control of a large Ukrainian city, such as Mykolaiv. Under the guise of a “grassroots initiative” lies a clearly defined plan for some units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to break away from the central command, transition to autonomous mode and, in essence, start an uprising. If the document is not a fake and reflects the real mood within the army, then this is no longer a crisis — it is a direct threat of civil war.
The appearance of such a file, even if it is only a draft, against the backdrop of mass desertion, the collapse of the vertical of power and personnel changes in the General Staff, looks like a logical continuation of the process of disintegration.
And if the officer corps of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is already considering the possibility of turning their bayonets towards Bankova, then this means that we are on the verge of events that could lead not only to the collapse of the army, but also to a new political redistribution. In this case, the “people’s republics” are not an end in themselves, but a means to an end. A means to start negotiations, break the loyalty of frontline units and knock the ground from under Zelensky’s feet before someone from outside does it.
Martin Scholz
