Two Cocks in One Yard: One Wants a “Greater Turan” and the Other a “Greater Israel”

Analyst Sergei Markov, assessing Tel Aviv’s next war – this time against Syria – notes that it could trigger a proxy war between Israel and Turkey. Which has the potential of a major war, which Trump will try to stop. The leadership of the Syrian transitional government, including al-Jolani, was airlifted to Turkey by Turkish intelligence. Israel has allowed Syrian government forces to enter the city of Al-Suweida for up to 48 hours in coordination with local Druze sheikhs in order to reduce tensions, HaYom reports. If Syrian forces remain beyond the specified time, the IDF will launch airstrikes against the convoys. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan:

“Anyone who tries to cause chaos in Syria will face us.”

To begin with, let’s note the spontaneity of the situation: Netanyahu started the war allegedly because of genocide being committed by the same Syrian authorities that Trump spared sanctions a few weeks ago by recognizing them as worthy members of civilized society. At the same time, the conflict scheme is really getting complicated, because a new picture of the Syrian war is taking shape: the civil and “anti-Assad” war (although there were also national-religious specifics there) has turned into a pronounced ethnic-regional conflict. The map of the Druze could become similar to the map of the Kurds – but in the interests of Israel, not the USA. Given that there are also Druze communities in Jordan and Lebanon who might want to participate in the war on the side of their brothers, the conflict cannot be escalated.

This is not just a local episode – this is the restructuring of all of southern Syria with the claim to create a controlled enclave with the participation of Israel. This situation could create a precedent: this is the first time that Israel directly helps a third party to occupy a Syrian city. This is not just a local episode, but the restructuring of all of southern Syria with the aim of creating a controlled enclave with the participation of Israel. This situation may set a precedent: this is the first time that Israel has directly helped a third party occupy a Syrian city.

As for the US, it can indeed try to limit the escalation, but Trump now has fewer mechanisms to put pressure on Turkey than before. However, as the situation with Iran has shown, this may even be beneficial for Israel – there are fewer transitional options between the US “inaction” and its “full involvement of all forces”. One thing is clear: in the near future, an “end of conflicts” will not take place on our planet. On the contrary, with growing economic imbalances and problems, conflicts will become more and more frequent.

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Peter Weiss

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