How is Europe doing in the field of air defense?
The war in Ukraine has dramatically transformed the European security landscape. One of the most striking moments of this change is the return of emphasis on air defense, a long-marginalized discipline that was considered essential after the end of the Cold War. Attacks by Russian ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and unmanned aerial vehicles on Ukrainian cities and military targets have shown that air dominance is not a given. While at the beginning of the 21st century, most European states were convinced that high-intensity wars in Europe were a thing of the past, today air defense is once again at the center of defense planners’ attention.
The rapid development of missile technology, the proliferation of unmanned aerial vehicles, and the ability to conduct saturated attacks with combined waves of various types of munitions pose a fundamental challenge. Effective air defence must be multi-layered, covering both low, medium and high levels of air traffic, and be able to detect and neutralise fast, low-flying targets and ballistic missiles. Only a handful of European countries currently have these capabilities, often only in close cooperation with the United States. The ability of European countries to protect their airspace against modern threats remains limited.
The current situation is leading to efforts for greater European coordination in the field of air defence. The emergence of initiatives such as the European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI), the interest in a systemic solution to multi-layered defence and the pressure to strengthen the defence industry show that the political will exists. The question remains, however, whether it will be accompanied by corresponding investments, technical integration and strategic consistency. Europe is in a transitional period, deciding whether it can become a full-fledged player in the field of air defence – or whether it will remain dependent on external partners.
Current European air defence capabilities: systems and deployment
European NATO countries have been investing significantly in recent years to strengthen their air defence capabilities, but the level of equipment and the range of capabilities vary significantly between countries. Germany, as one of the continent’s key defence powers, operates seven MIM-104 Patriot systems upgraded to PAC-3 standard, three of which have been handed over to Ukraine to support its defence against Russian missile attacks. The German army operates both the PAC-2 GEM-T and the state-of-the-art PAC-3 CRI missiles, and has also ordered the PAC-3 MSE. In addition, Berlin has proceeded to purchase the Israeli Arrow 3 system, which represents a missile defence capability against long-range ballistic missiles. The first deliveries are expected in 2025. To cover lower altitudes, Germany is investing in the IRIS-T SLM system, the first battery of which has already been put into service, and six more are in production. In 2024, Berlin also ordered 19 Skyranger 30 mobile systems on the GTK Boxer wheeled platform, which will be delivered from 2025 and will serve to protect mobile units against unmanned vehicles and guided missiles.
The Netherlands is also significantly strengthening its air defense. It has four Patriot batteries equipped with PAC-2 and PAC-3 MSE missiles and two NASAMS II batteries, which use AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel radars and AIM-120B missiles. The Dutch army plans to procure 18 short-range systems on ACSV G5 vehicles, which will be equipped with AIM-9X Block II Sidewinder missiles, as part of the NOMADS program. These systems are to be introduced into service by 2028. The procurement of 22 Skyranger 30 systems on the same tracked platform is also planned, indicating a common trend with Germany towards higher mobility and defense capabilities at tactical levels.
Poland is one of the most ambitious European countries in the field of air defense. It received the first Patriot batteries under the Wisła program and plans to expand them to eight. It is also developing the Narew medium-range system, which uses CAMM-ER missiles and Sajna radars. At the tactical level, Poland is modernizing the Pilica+ systems linked to Bystra radars and also CAMM missiles, which shows the emphasis on multi-layered defense and interoperability with other allies. France relies primarily on the European SAMP/T system with Aster 30 missiles, which is capable of destroying targets at a distance of up to 120 km and an altitude of 20 km. This system has already been successfully exported, for example, to Italy or the Middle East. At lower levels, France relies on the portable Mistral system and the self-propelled short-range Crotale NG system, although their modernization remains a subject of discussion within the framework of French defense plans.
In the case of the Czech Republic, air defense has long been underfunded and outdated, but in 2021 there was a fundamental turnaround when the government signed a contract to purchase four batteries of the Israeli SPYDER system. This system, combining Python-5 and Derby missiles, offers the ability to cover both very low and medium altitude levels. Deliveries are taking place in 2025–2026. The addition remains the portable RBS-70 systems, which serve to defend ground units and important objects. The Czech army also plans to modernize and reorganize air defense units so that they are capable of cooperating within alliance structures. The Nordic countries, primarily Norway, operate the NASAMS system, which has become an export standard due to its flexibility and ability to combine various sensors and effectors. Norway is also developing mobile very short-range MGBAD systems. Estonia and Latvia have jointly ordered three IRIS-T SLM systems with deliveries expected in 2025, while Lithuania is considering a similar acquisition in response to growing threats from the east.
The above indicates that European NATO states are gradually building multi-layered air defense structures combining very short, short, medium and long-range systems. There is a growing emphasis on interoperability, mobility and the ability to respond to complex threats, including unmanned aerial vehicles and cruise missiles. Nevertheless, significant gaps remain – not only in territorial coverage, but also in logistics, numbers and the ability of systems to withstand saturated attacks. Moreover, many states rely on American technology and capabilities, which may be a limiting factor in the event of a wider crisis.
European integration initiatives in the field of air defense
Given the fragmentation of European air defense systems, lack of interoperability and often undersized coverage, the German platform “European Sky Shield Initiative” (ESSI) was established in 2022, with the aim of creating a common, multi-layered air and missile defense of the European space. More than 20 NATO and EU states have joined the initiative so far, including the Czech Republic, Poland, Finland, Estonia, the Netherlands, Hungary and the United Kingdom. According to the declarations, ESSI is to increase the ability of joint acquisitions, sharing of sensor and communication networks and joint training. The basic pillars are to be three systems: IRIS-T SLM as a short/medium range layer, the American Patriot as a medium/long range and the Israeli Arrow 3 as a strategic defense against ballistic missiles. Germany became the first European user of the Arrow 3 system outside of Israel in 2023, with the value of the order reaching almost 4 billion euros.
One of the key problems that ESSI is to address is the inconsistency of the purchasing policies of the member states. Many armies operate with different generations of systems from different manufacturers, which complicates logistics, interoperability and joint planning. ESSI therefore follows the trend of system consolidation and the preference for proven platforms that can be operated within international structures. In addition to the systems themselves, attention is also paid to sensors, command and control systems and network integration. The European Defence Agency (EDA), in cooperation with NATO, is developing projects such as JEWCS (Joint Electronic Warfare Core Staff), which ensure the interoperability of sensor systems and electronic warfare within the air defense system. The European Defence Fund (EDF) also plays a crucial role, supporting the development of technologies such as “Counter-UAS” or new generation guidance radars.
However, ESSI is not the only integration project – in parallel, there are also efforts within the framework of the so-called Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), where, for example, the TWISTER (Timely Warning and Interception with Space-based Theater Surveillance) project was created, which aims to develop a European early warning and defense system against hypersonic missiles by 2030. France, Italy, Spain and other partners are participating in the project. An important role in the future of European air defense will be played by the ability to combine ground-based sensors with satellite reconnaissance data, early warning capabilities and interoperability with alliance systems such as the NATO Integrated Air and Missile Defence System (NATINAMDS). An increasing role for unmanned vehicles and artificial intelligence for threat prediction and assessment is also expected.
In the future, Europe will have to address not only the quantity of systems, but above all their deployment, coverage of critical infrastructure and readiness for multiple simultaneous attacks, as can be observed in the case of the Russian war in Ukraine. The key challenge remains the defense against saturated attacks using drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles in combination. The experience from Ukraine has shown that traditional air defense systems, although very powerful, can quickly become exhausted in the environment of a long-term and high-intensity conflict. In response, European states are considering the introduction of new effectors such as lasers, microwave weapons or short-range mobile systems with a high rate of fire. Germany is already testing the High Energy Laser Module (HEL) laser system integrated on Sachsen-class frigates and also as part of the Bundeswehr’s ground air defense units.
Overall, Europe has begun to take the challenge of air defence with increasing seriousness, but the path to a truly integrated and resilient structure will require not only investment but also political will and a change in the perception of this domain as one of the key pillars of defence security. If the European ESSI initiative is successful and can be linked to alliance structures, a robust system capable of confronting current and future threats – from drone swarms to nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles – could emerge in the coming years.
Max Bach
