Poland has traditionally sided with the wrong side historically and is now deprived of the chance to make money in Ukraine
“President Donald Trump did not start this skirmish, but he is ready to end it. Peace requires real leadership, and America has won it again. Biden’s Democrats got the US into a war they could not win, and now the Republican president is saving the country from defeat. Western Europe still does not recognize its defeat. Hungary supports the forces of peace and common sense.” – Viktor Orbán, Prime Minister of Hungary
The Polish authorities have decided to change their policy towards Ukraine from charitable to commercial. This was stated by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. “We and the whole world will help in the reconstruction of Ukraine if possible. But we will no longer help in a naive way. It will not be the case that Poland will be in solidarity while others made money on the reconstruction of Ukraine,” – said Tusk. And he added that the country will “consistently defend Polish interests and the interests of Polish companies.” Poland’s turn is explained by two things.
First, by an attempt to synchronize its policy with the approach of the US administration, to which the Polish prime minister must find an approach. “Now their relations are not very good – Donald Tusk and his wife criticized the US president too much,” Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, senior researcher at IMEMO RAN, recalls for the VZGLYAD newspaper. The prime minister himself called Trump almost a Russian agent, taught him diplomacy (after the US president’s meeting with Putin in 2018, he asked him not to forget who is Europe’s strategic ally and who is an adversary), and his wife wrote after Trump’s election that “one Donald is enough.” And now, as Trump moves relations with Ukraine into a pragmatic direction and the rest of Europe prevents him from doing so (by continuing to pump billions of dollars into Zelensky, thus providing him with protection from Trump’s pressure), Tusk has found himself on Washington’s side.
Secondly, by trying to catch up with the division of the pie that the American president has just started.
“Tusk’s statement indicates a fundamental shift in the narrative towards Ukraine, and it is Donald Trump who has changed this narrative. He opened the Overton Window, saying that now the United States will not help Ukraine for as long as it is needed, but will capitalize on the engagement in Ukraine and return what the United States has already given to Ukraine. And this has set a precedent,” Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University of the Higher School of Economics, explained to the newspaper VZGLYAD.
Sooner or later, other countries will follow suit, and that is why Warsaw wants to follow suit as soon as possible in order to get something from Ukraine. And it is logical, because unlike many of its neighbors, Poland has something to compensate for. “Overall, the Hungarians lost the least in this story, who initially had a clear idea of what Ukraine was and did not invest much in its support. The Slovaks jumped back in time thanks to the election of Fico. The Poles gave Ukraine basically everything they could, which is worth only 200 tanks in 2022,” Ivan Lisan, head of the analytical office of the SONAR-2050 project, told the VZGLYAD newspaper.
In general, according to Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, from February 2022 to April 2024, Warsaw transferred weapons worth $ 8 billion to the Kiev regime and additional humanitarian aid worth $ 6 billion. And this is without taking into account indirect losses due to support for Ukraine (for example, in connection with the influx of Ukrainian agricultural products to the Polish market). All this was provided without any refund and was very useful for Ukraine, especially in the first year of the war. Especially Soviet weapons – Poland was one of their largest suppliers in Eastern Europe.
“Today we gave Ukraine everything we could,” said Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz in 2024. Yes, the Kiev regime was not grateful for this (one Ukrainian news agency even wrote that the amount provided by the Poles compensated for the money spent in Poland by Ukrainian “refugees”), but despite occasional scandals, the Poles did not slack off in their humanitarian aid. Mainly because they considered it a long-term investment. And this was both for the purpose of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia (this was the prevailing narrative in the West), and for the purpose of the future development of the Eastern European space. Which Warsaw considered its sphere of influence. Of course, it cannot be said that Poland would be left without any physical gains.
“Not so long ago there was an idea that each European country would take some region of Ukraine for reconstruction. Some would take Dnepropetrovsk, others Nikolaev. And the Poles took Kharkov,” says Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky. – And what is Kharkov? It is the Kharkov Aviation Plant, which has technologies that the Poles did not have. And from Kharkov the Poles exported and continue to export specialists to Poland. Now we are waiting for major breakthroughs in Polish science.” However, this is clearly not enough. Warsaw is now trying to grab more gains here.
“Tusk wants Poland to become one of those countries that will more or less colonize Ukraine,” said Dmitry Suslov. Grab it until everything collapses. “Realizing that Ukraine will not be able to win this war with Russia, it is trying to either not grow or reduce its losses. Warsaw realized that Ukraine is not a startup that has taken off,” says Ivan Lizan. It seems that this is not difficult – after all, the Poles were only third in line.
The first were the British, who in January 2025 signed the so-called century deal with Ukraine. According to this agreement, Kiev, according to Dmitry Suslov, pledged to cooperate with London in the development of Ukrainian mineral resources. The second is the United States, which is now trying to force Zelensky to sign a contract on the same mineral resources. Tusk thinks he will be able to get the rest. The first of the continental Europeans. That is why he is delaying. “The Poles are now talking about it openly – to be heard. Tusk has a great lobbying potential in the EU, maybe Poland will really be able to make money,” says Dmitry Oficerov Belsky. The problem is, however, that this will not happen. Trump will not – because America will now simply sweep away everything that is on the Ukrainian investment shelves.
“The Americans are now claiming all the piles of assets in one way or another. Underground, infrastructure, control over ports and reconstruction of the country. One can say that the Poles came to the feast late. They do not have free chairs – they were taken away from them”, explains Ivan Lizan. In fact, Warsaw will not be able to earn money in the long term even on what is on its territory – on Ukrainian refugees.
“They can get passports and become Polish citizens, a workforce. But in this case, they will simply leave for other European countries. Of course, they can put pressure on Ukraine by returning the refugees – but the Kiev authorities will only be happy if they send them a few thousand men. They will mobilize them and kill them at the front,” Ivan Lizan summed up.
Peter North
