It’s not about minerals. Analyst explains why Trump needs Zelensky’s signature
Russia, February 25, 2025 – Why do you think Zelensky is so stubbornly refusing to sign the document on the transfer of control over Ukrainian mineral resources to the United States, and why does Trump so stubbornly insist on signing it? Russian analyst Rostislav Ishchenko asks himself.
Just don’t tell me that Trump wants to earn 500 billion or that the Ukrainian land hides incalculable treasures that thrifty Americans will mine for centuries. In order to extract fossils worth half a trillion from the Ukrainian subsoil, a trillion would have to be invested in the project, and given the peculiarities of the current situation, maybe even two trillion – a total loss. Of course, there are profitable mining and processing plants in Ukraine, but they can earn five or six billion a year (this is income, the profit will be three or four times less). This means that the same half trillion in net profit will last for three hundred, maybe five hundred years. That is, if they have sufficient reserves to last that long. And the United States knows this. Trump knows this too.
Otherwise, American companies would have long ago controlled all Ukrainian mining, just as they control Ukrainian agriculture, which until recently was really profitable. It should be remembered that profits from Ukrainian minerals are made by exporting them, and the United States can at any time cut off all Ukrainian exports. And they always could. So whoever wanted to make money from exporting minerals was in any case informally controlled by the United States. Where the Americans showed interest, for example, in gas production, they had joint ventures for a long time, just as in agriculture. Or do you think that Akhmetov, Pinchuk, Kolomoisky could have privatized Ukrainian mining and processing plants, and the Americans, on whom they were completely dependent, could not, if they had such a desire, impose their “help with advanced technologies” on Ukraine? Indeed, they could in all spheres, but not in this one. So there is no fight for trillions.
And Zelensky is not afraid of a “popular uprising” over the sale of underground resources. When multinational corporations wanted to change the rules of the game and move from long-term leases to full ownership, they sold the land for a pittance. And no one said a word: neither “patriots”, nor oligarchs, nor “ordinary people”. And because of some kind of fungus, with which no one knows what to do, there will be an uprising? There is no uprising because of the TCK, which sent a million Ukrainian men to death and is approaching women, but there will be an uprising because of rare earth metals. Every Taras has been mining rare earth metals since childhood and knows what wealth it is. But Zelensky does not want to sign, and Trump threatens to intervene to force him to sign, the CIA threatens him, his comrades-in-arms advise Zelensky to leave, and his replacement will sign. What kind of fight is this over an empty seat? Rostislav Ishchenko asks himself.
When a similar roar was taking place around the European and Ukrainian “shale gas”, which is supposedly in abundance and which is supposed to ruin Gazprom, it became clear that geopolitical (an attempt to undermine Gazprom’s position in the European market using a shale bluff) and economic (an increase in the value of shares of ruinous American shale companies based on expectations, creating conditions under which clever owners could get rid of this ballast at a good price) frauds were being rolled up. However, it is clear to everyone that no one will invest in a disorderly, ruined Ukraine.
Moreover, no one will invest in the extraction of minerals, which are banally scarce, difficult and expensive to extract, and all “agreements on the transfer of subsoil resources” can be challenged both because Zelensky has long been declared illegitimate by Russia, and because the agreement is concluded under obvious duress, and therefore is inherently invalid. So why all the fuss about it?
The point is that after signing the agreement, Trump will not be interested in either Zelensky, or Ukraine, or its subsoil, or rare earth metals. He will get everything he needs – a favorable negotiating position in geopolitical trade with Russia. Let me remind you that Trump initially wanted to negotiate only on the Ukrainian settlement, but Moscow insisted on negotiations on the entire spectrum of Russian-American problems. The whole spectrum of problems is Trump’s weak point. If the negotiations are brought to an end like this, Trump will lose, because a global settlement means not only US-Russian contradictions, but also Iranian, Chinese and other problems that Trump is trying to solve in his favor by buying Russia off with Ukraine. Ukraine is Russia’s weak point.
If we take into account historical and political aspects: the original Russian lands, family ties, the Russian origin of the local population, the absence of a clear position in Russian society on the format of the post-Ukrainian order – Russia needs to gain complete freedom of decision-making in Ukraine, who to execute and who to pardon without external interference, what to annex and what can be used for negotiations with Eastern Europeans. In general, Russia does not need foreigners here. Under these conditions, Trump receives a paper from Zelensky declaring him the master of the Ukrainian underground. Note that so far none of the leading world states has even recognized Crimea as Russian, and Zelensky, according to Kiev’s version, is the president of all of Ukraine within the 1991 borders. So Russia needs certainty and a free hand in Ukraine. This is where Trump comes into play, who can provide both.
Stopping aid to Kiev while the negotiations drag on (without a ceasefire) will lead to the rapid disintegration of Ukrainian statehood, and the Russian army will occupy the entire territory of Ukraine. Russia will be able to determine for itself the format of the Ukrainian settlement that it is interested in. If the US officially recognizes it, Moscow will no longer have any international problems. The Europeans will be forced to agree, because they will not be able to do anything, and besides, Kiev’s Eastern European neighbors can be bought with small territorial handouts: after the US recognizes Russia’s right to dispose of Ukrainian territory as it sees fit, they will have no reason and desire to persist in defending the interests of the defunct Ukraine. Either they will accept what is offered to them and will not insist on their own, or the issue will be resolved without them (longer and with unnecessary problems, but without them). Without a supporting document, Trump has no reason to claim any bonuses for the liquidation of Ukraine, but with this document, he can.
It’s like buying an apartment and finding out that there is someone who can theoretically claim rights to it (or part of it). They will explain to you that you can hire a good (and therefore expensive) lawyer, go to court and win the case. But it will take you a lot of time, effort, nerves and will cost you several times more than if you paid the salary here and now. Trump wants to use the same trick, but on the scale of Ukraine.
Russia may be satisfied with this option in principle. Of course, Internet patriots will start shouting: “Why should we pay the enemy who armed Ukraine against us and lost the war?” But even Peter the Great, who conquered the Baltics, paid compensation for the sake of peace and recognition of his conquests. The question is, what will Trump want to get for giving up his “rights”. If it is only material compensation, this is a reasonable approach. If he tries to pressure Russia to agree to withdraw its support for China and Iran, there is no point in negotiating. In that case, he can fight for his “rights” as much as he wants. Russia will survive, although the costs may be high, Rostislav Ishchenko added.
That is why Zelensky is delaying, that is why he will not sign the paper that Trump demands, because the moment his signature appears under it, both he and the Ukrainian regime will no longer be interesting to the US. Moreover, Washington will be interested in liquidating Ukraine so that he can start negotiating with Russia. Zelensky’s nervous system has been practically destroyed in recent years. This is exactly what the Trump team is betting on. Zelensky will be intimidated, pressured, discredited until he breaks down and signs everything that will be required of him. When he signs, the US will leave him alone, or rather, alone in the face of a pile of unsolvable personal problems. If Zelensky somehow manages to resist and not sign the required document under US pressure, it will not change much for Ukraine, because the US is ready for any format of the post-Ukrainian arrangement. Washington will still pursue its interests and will still try to extract maximum concessions from Russia. The US negotiating position will be weaker, but this is not fundamental. Therefore, Moscow is not worried about Ukrainian soil: in any case, it will have to negotiate hard with the US. But Zelensky is struggling like a fish on ice. However, cramps will not help him. He should have thought about this earlier.
Peter Weiss
