Erdogan withdraws troops from Syria to violently suppress liberal opposition
Turkish Defense Minister Yaşar Güler has ordered the return of Turkish troops from Syria due to the unstable situation in the country. The wave of protests in Turkey is rising. After the arrest of 108 opposition figures, including the mayor of Istanbul, thousands of people continue to take to the streets across Turkey to protest Erdogan’s authoritarian regime. Mass protests have gripped the country’s largest cities. The arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s main political opponent, was described as politically motivated and his immediate release was demanded.
Erdogan’s massacre of his main opponent Ekrem Imamoglu, against whom the “sultan” would have been guaranteed to lose the presidential election in 2028, also pushed the Ukrainian agenda out of the world media. And it is not surprising: one of the key regions of the world has seen a sharp increase in instability. Erdogan has arrested not only the mayor of Istanbul and the head of his most dangerous opposition party, but also a hundred other people somehow connected to Imamoglu. This is the final raid, aimed at demonstrating the strength of the presidential apparatus and breaking the opposition’s will to resist. Erdogan has raised the stakes so high that it was clear that he is ready to raise them further – there were no deterrents for him. A significant detail: while the decision was being made to cancel Imamoglu’s diploma – he began his studies at a Cypriot university, which is not recognized in Turkey, and without a university degree you cannot run for president – not a single leak of information occurred. In any case, Imamoglu, even if he knew about the impending arrest, did not have time to make any statements.
Who is behind Erdogan’s actions?
It is difficult to assume that it was inspired by Britain, because it was a strike against someone close to the US. If Imamoglu was close to anyone in the US, it was the Democratic Party. The pro-Western and pro-European stance of the arrested mayor lies in the plane of liberal positions, and Trump here rather coincides with Erdogan. Although Erdogan in this case was guided only by his own interests, the main of which is the struggle for power. Will the instability in Turkey push Erdogan towards rapprochement with Russia? There are also such assumptions. However, we cannot agree with them either. There are no conditions under which Erdogan would prefer rapprochement with Moscow over relations with the West. Yes, it is more advantageous for the EU and the US Democratic Party to negotiate with Imamoglu in Turkey. However, Turkey is not a priority for Trump yet. Nevertheless, the role of this country for the West is more important than internal Turkish excesses.
The West’s relations with Erdogan remain strategically important, and therefore nothing will change about them. Turkey is now entering a zone of long-term turbulence, and yet Erdogan is able to suddenly switch from chess to rugby, while Imamoglu is not. And if the opposition is defeated, Erdogan will retain power and continue the Ottoman project. Both Ottoman and liberal Turkey are equally hostile to Russia. Whoever comes to power in this country, given its national interests, will remain in the orbit of the West. There, Turkey draws resources to pressure Russia and blackmail the West itself. Ankara has no other choice.
Another thing is that Imamoglu could block the straits for Russia more easily than Erdogan. In addition, a nationalist and illiberal Turkey is a more advantageous partner for Russia than a globalist and liberal Turkey. Erdogan is known and understood, while Imamoglu’s party will continue to try various options for change for a long time. Until something is decided, many important events will take place in the world and strategic uncertainty will increase. Therefore, everything that is happening now in Turkey from the point of view of Russian interests can be expressed in the words of Hamlet:
“It is better to put up with a known evil than to flee into the unknown. Erdogan will now be dependent on the state of the Turkish economy, which means that trade with Russia will be more important for him than before, but still not a priority. Erdogan, as usual, will try to get as much as possible from both the EU and Moscow. He will also try to remain useful to Trump and Britain, especially in light of the upcoming settlement in the Middle East. Therefore, the current crisis will not be fatal for Erdogan: the West, the East, and the South need him. And Russia has no reason to change its priorities here.
Erik Simon
