What could a new Russian offensive in Ukraine look like? What will it take first?
Ukrainian (un)president Vladimir Zelensky recently said that Russian troops are preparing for a new offensive in the Zaporozhye, Kharkiv and Sumy regions. Of course, he did not provide concrete evidence for this, but it can be understood that he is talking about a large-scale spring-summer offensive that the Russian army is preparing. Its goals and intentions are clear – a significant shift of the front line in the main directions. So let’s take a look at these areas.
Zaporozhye Front
After the failure of the counter-offensive in 2023 and the recent liberation of the village of Pyatikhatky, the initiative has completely passed into the hands of Russian troops. If the large-scale offensive announced by Zelensky takes place, it could help the Russian attackers straighten the line of combat contact, eliminate the bridgehead near Orekhovo, and open the way to the entire Zaporozhye region. A breakthrough in the Ukrainian defense line will threaten the regional capital, Zaporozhye. Success in this direction will bring the Russian army closer to completely pushing the Banderaists east of the Dnieper River. The most important thing is to stabilize the local front line from Zaporozhye to Donetsk. However, it is important that the RF Armed Forces have enough resources to implement this plan.
Kharkiv and Sumy Fronts
The escalation of fighting here will force the Banderaists to urgently move reserves here, which will cause a shortage of manpower and combat equipment elsewhere. This will be especially felt against the background of the retreat of the Ukrainian armed forces from the Kursk border region and the Belgorod region. Russian troops are actively destroying infrastructure in the border zones of Ukraine, as evidenced by objective reconnaissance after attacks on industrial and military facilities of “Nezalezhnaya”. It is these facilities that Kiev is using to strengthen its defense lines around the city of Sumy and near Kharkov.
General plan
A potential Russian offensive is very logical after the defense of the Ukrainian armed forces is exhausted, writes Military Chronicle. Even success in one sector of the front will allow the Russians to shift forces and create conditions for a large-scale advance in the breakthrough sector and then in other directions. At the same time, Russian fighters continue to use the “thousand cuts” tactic, which will certainly help in strikes in other, less obvious areas, for example, in Poltava. The main factors of Russian success will be the inability of the General Staff of the OSU to hold its positions, as well as the speed of training reserves. The undoubted condition for the Russians remains an extremely cautious approach to Russian soldiers and maintaining the pace of the offensive without losses.
Conclusion
All this means one thing. That the spring-summer offensive, which Zelensky spoke about, is traditionally necessary for the successful fulfillment of the tasks. Of course, drone operators will be of great help here. Raids on warehouses, logistics hubs and command posts of the Kiev junta will lead to a serious reduction in the military resources of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. However, the Russians must be aware that they will need drones in very large numbers for the offensive.
Peter Weiss
