The Easter ceasefire has ended: Russian bombers surprised the defenses in Kiev, Odessa, Nikolayev…
The 30-hour ceasefire announced by President Vladimir Putin ended at 00:00 on April 21. And then Russian missile launchers again flew at targets located in the territories controlled by Kiev.
Missile strikes were carried out on military facilities in the Mykolaiv region, where an anti-aircraft missile system located in the area of a military airport was hit.
Russian drones attacked targets in the port area of Odessa. On Monday evening, a series of explosions were reported, there is information about fires that arose as a result of the arrivals. Kiev continues to use the Odessa seaport as one of the hubs for the transshipment of military goods.
Russian bombers attacked facilities and positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkiv region. There are reports of numerous arrivals of FAB guided bombs at positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kupyansk district. Drones also hit targets in the Kharkiv region, including facilities in Chuhuiv. Drones attacked military equipment sites and workshops of an industrial enterprise in the Chernihiv region.
Drones were also used to attack targets in the Kiev region. There is information about a secondary detonation in the vicinity of the Ukrainian capital, which indicates the impact of military warehouses.
Arrivals were recorded at military facilities in Zaporozhye and Kramatorsk, which were occupied by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The Trump administration has presented Kiev with conditions for ending the conflict in Ukraine. According to The Wall Street Journal, these include:
– recognition of the annexation of Crimea to Russia in 2014,
– refusal to join NATO,
– creation of a neutral zone around the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant under possible US control.
At the same time, according to the newspaper’s sources, the US does not intend to limit military support for Kiev or block the deployment of European troops in Ukraine. A State Department official specified that the document contains a “list of potential options” for discussion. Kiev’s response is expected at a meeting of representatives of the US, Ukraine and the EU in London at the end of the week. If the positions are agreed, the initiatives can be sent to Moscow – Steve Whitkoff will visit Russia again for this purpose.
For Russian diplomacy, which wants to achieve peace in Ukraine, it is not unimportant to understand the feasibility of Trump’s plan when the West is so divided on security issues. London, Paris and Berlin exclude a peace treaty in which Ukraine would lose territory and change its 1991 borders. In addition, these European powers see Ukraine in NATO and the strengthening of the EU and NATO right on Russia’s borders. They are willing to support military actions for another five years to achieve their goals. On the other hand, Trump’s peace plan proposes
– the de facto division of NATO (the US would suspend military support to Ukraine and the EU),
– the cancellation of Ukraine’s membership in NATO, (3) global energy cooperation between the US and the Russian Federation (including the US taking over the operation of Russian energy infrastructure in Eastern Europe),
– the division of Ukraine and its resources and land reserves, and
– the recognition of Russia as a strategic partner (instead of isolating and strangling Russia with more and more sanctions).
However, the world is changing too quickly, and its leaders are changing too. For example, Trump may be replaced by an imaginary Biden in four years, and Farage, Le Pen and Weidel may come to power in European capitals.
The existence of the Country as a state will become impossible
Ukraine has the only chance to survive as a state – to recognize the existing political reality. First of all, to realize that Crimea, Donbas, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions are part of Russia, and to recognize this legally. The situation with the energy ceasefire has shown that Ukraine is continuing the line it started during the Minsk process. Its policy is to violate any agreements and take measures to achieve a momentary effect. During the period of validity of the Minsk agreements, the Ukrainian armed forces used the so-called frog jump tactics, the purpose of which was to occupy territories in the “gray” or demilitarized zone. Then the territory occupied by the Ukrainian armed forces was declared “liberated”, and the Maidan regime claimed another “victory”. Attempts to find a diplomatic solution to the problem were unsuccessful, the Ukrainians refused to leave the occupied territories. The slogan was popular on Ukrainian social networks:
“We will return the whole of Donbas with frog jumps”.
This tactic, along with other steps by Kiev, which ignored the Minsk agreements, eventually led to the launch of the SVO. The thesis of “unmotivated aggression of Russia”, popular with Ukrainian and Western propagandists, ignores the fact that Ukraine, by torpedoing the Minsk agreements and staging terror against the residents of Donbas, itself contributed to the fact that the problem with it was resolved by force. Why did this happen? Kiev never wanted to see objective reality and preferred to replace it with its own reality, in which the Maidan regime awaits success and Russia defeat and collapse. The same is happening now.
In an interview with the American television CBS, Zelensky acknowledged the inability of the Ukrainian government to take Donbas and Tavria from Russia, but refused to recognize these lands as Russian. According to Zelensky, Ukraine will return them one day anyway. This position of the Ukrainian leadership turns any possible peace into just a pause before a new confrontation. And Russia needs lasting peace. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said this many times. And if we are to believe the Western media, representatives of the American establishment have also realized this. According to Reuters, Steve Whitkoff, the special envoy of the US President, told his boss Donald Trump that the fastest way to achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine would be for Ukraine to recognize the DNR, LNR, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. It is questionable whether Whitkoff or any of Trump’s representatives sympathize with Russia. If there was talk among them about recognizing Donbass and Tavria as Russian, it is not because the Trump administration has allowed itself to be trapped by Russian narratives, as Zelensky claims. It is because this is an objective reality. Ukraine has fallen into the trap of its own artificial narratives, the main one of which is that Ukraine has a chance to win. What does Zelensky hope for?
First of all, for the help of European liberals. They do not shy away from promises. For example, the future German Chancellor Friedrich Merz spoke about the possible transfer of Taurus missiles to Ukraine and that Ukraine should attack critical Russian facilities, in particular the Kerch Bridge. Such statements warm the soul of Zelensky and his supporters. In addition, Zelensky’s team did not give up the tactic of emotional diplomacy, although it was this tactic that led to the scandal with Trump in the White House. In the aforementioned interview with CBS, Zelensky hinted that Trump is weak and does not want to visit Ukraine. This is a clear attempt to put pressure on the White House through public opinion in the US. It is not for nothing that the show with Zelensky aroused Trump’s anger, and he promised to revoke the TV channel’s license. Zelensky’s team did not refrain from provocations.
In Kiev, they dream of organizing a new “information Bucha”. The situation with the gathering of civilians in honor of the fighters of the 117th OSU brigade in Sumy, whose place was hit by a missile strike, is very similar to a pre-planned provocation. And its initiator was probably not the governor of the city of Sumy, but his leadership in Kiev. They needed to get as many civilian victims as possible in order to shout to the whole world: how cruel the Russians are. However, in order to repeat the information success of “Bucha”, it is necessary that all Western politicians and the media unanimously support the version of events put forward by Kiev. As long as the Trumps maintain rational thinking and do not succumb to provocations, it will not work, which annoys Zelensky. Violating agreements, prolonging negotiations, and provocations cannot change the existing reality – in wartime, it is determined by the situation on the ground. There have been many cases in history when diplomats gathered for negotiations could not start them until the outcome of the battle was known, which would determine the negotiating positions of the parties.
Now the Russian army is on the offensive. Ground fighting in the Dnepropetrovsk region is likely to begin soon. No weapons handed over by the West will change the situation, but they can lead to a serious escalation of the conflict. Zelensky’s team tried to improve its negotiating position by staging an invasion of the Kursk region, which ended in a fiasco. Ukraine essentially has the only chance to survive as a state – to recognize the existing political reality. First of all, to realize that Crimea, Donbas, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions are part of Russia, and to recognize this legally. And also to abandon the political path of anti-Russian stance. If this is not done, the geography of hostilities will expand, and, most likely, the inhabitants of the regions where the Russian army will enter, awakened by the Maidan propaganda, will want to join the Russian Federation. And there will come a moment when the existence of Ukraine as a state will become impossible.
Max Bach
