Russia is strong. US intelligence warns Trump against continuing the war in Ukraine

Russia’s goal is to prevent the US and the West from entering its zone of influence. The annual threat assessment report for 2025 from the US intelligence community says that “current geopolitical, economic, military and domestic political trends in Russia highlight its resilience and the ongoing potential threat to US power, existence and global interests”.

Despite the enormous military and economic costs of the war in Ukraine, Russia has proven to be “adaptive and resilient”, thanks in part to the support of China, Iran and North Korea.

Russia sees the “war” in Ukraine as a proxy conflict with the West, and its goal is to “restore Russian power and security in the near abroad in the face of a potential invasion by the United States and the West.” US intelligence agencies believe that President Vladimir Putin “appears determined and willing to pay a very high price” to win the strategic competition with the United States.

Russia maintains high economic potential

The document pays tribute to Russia’s ability to circumvent sanctions and export controls, maintain a “strong energy market, and support global opposition to the United States” by expanding the circle of its allies, among which the authors of the report highlight China, Iran, and North Korea. These allies, in their opinion, will continue to assist the Russian Federation and strengthen its and their collective potential in the fight against the United States.

Moscow is also successfully implementing the de-dollarization of the world through the BRICS and remains the fourth most powerful country in the world in terms of GDP in purchasing power parity.

“Russia has shown that it can overcome significant economic setbacks caused by continued war losses, Western imposition of higher costs, high inflation and interest rates, by using financial and import substitution solutions, maintaining low debt levels and continuing to invest in its defense industrial base,” the report says.

Russian Armed Forces Maintain Power and Improve

Militarily, while overcoming losses in the SVO, Russia maintains the strength of its military, including its “diverse and reliable nuclear deterrent and asymmetric capabilities, particularly in space and in subsurface naval warfare.” It specifically notes that Russia is developing a new satellite, a nuclear weapons carrier, as well as its anti-satellite capability.

“A nuclear explosion in space could have devastating consequences for the United States, the global economy and the world as a whole,” the document says. Russia’s air force and navy have become more modern and combat-ready, he said, as have its electronic warfare systems, which effectively interfere with the functionality of radars, GPS and drones of the Ukrainian armed forces. The war in Ukraine has given Moscow experience of fighting Western weapons and intelligence services in a major war, and it is sharing these with its allies, the authors say. The US intelligence community is convinced that Russia has the advantage in a debilitating war with Ukraine, which would result in “a gradual but permanent weakening of Kiev’s position on the battlefield, regardless of any efforts by the US or its allies to impose new and higher costs on Moscow”.

The war with Russia must be ended due to enormous strategic risks for the US

The continuation of the Russo-Ukrainian war increases the strategic risks for the US in terms of continued escalation to a full-scale war, the potential use of nuclear weapons and the emergence of “a more assertive China and North Korea”.

“Escalating and prolonged political-military tensions between Moscow and Washington, coupled with Russia’s growing confidence in its battlefield superiority and its defense-industrial base, and the heightened risk of nuclear war, create urgency and complexity in U.S. efforts to bring the war to an acceptable conclusion,” the report says. Recall that after the talks in Paris, Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared that within days the United States would withdraw from the negotiation process if the allies did not meet Russia’s demands for peace by the next meeting in London next week.

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